Jack Scoville - Morning Softs Report 06/01/1803/06/2018 12:29

Jack Scoville - The PRICE Futures Group - Thu May 31, 9:49AM CDT


General Comments: Cotton was higher in early trading, then found some selling interest to close mostly a little lower. Ideas are that US Cotton especially is in a bad spot due to the extreme dry and hot weather in western Texas. Demand and stronger world prices have been supporting July futures, but July was the weakest month yesterday. The current weather is less than ideal in West Texas and at other producing areas around the world. The Southeast US is too wet. The weather is bad in India and China, with big heat seen in India and Pakistan and too much rain in China. Lost Chinese production could mean increased sales for the US, especially now since the US will have the quality the Chinese need. Futures traders are looking at a market that still has strong export demand and has seen some very uneven planting and growing conditions in the US. Much of the Southeast and parts of the Delta have seen big rains, especially in the last couple of days. Texas has seen some precipitation, but dryland areas are still very dry. Temperatures have turned hot. Oklahoma and Kansas have improved conditions due to recent rains. It has been hot and dry on the Indian Subcontinent and also in China. There are ideas that the US is now running short of high quality Cotton to deliver to the exchange and to overseas buyers. Demand remains strong in export markets.
Overnight News: The Delta will be mostly dry after some rain today and the Southeast will get drier weather over the next couple of days, then showers over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 87.71 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 74,361 bales, from 74,143 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9940 July. Support is at 9200, 9120, and 9060 July, with resistance of 9380, 9440, and 9500 July.

General Comments: FCOJ was lower on what  appeared to be long liquidation from speculators. Traders are worried about demand and are noting improved production prospects for Florida. Some drought busting rains have been reported in Florida in the last week, and most areas should have plenty of precipitation for now. The situation in the state should continue to improve as the rainy season appears to be underway/ The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good. Irrigation is being used, but less now after the rains. Brazil also could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and dry. Generally good conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 161.00 and 154.00 July. Support is at 162.00, 157.00, and 155.00 July, with resistance at 166.00, 169.00, and 172.00 July.

General Comments Futures in New York and London closed little changed after an early rally attempt in New York failed to gain much momentum. The truckers strike in Brazil that has delayed shipments provided support. Southern growing areas into pars of Minas Gerais saw temperatures cold enough to potentially damage crops last week, but there have been few, if any reports of damage. Temperatures have moderated this week, with no cold expected through the weekend. More cold weather is coming sooner or later as the Winter season has just started. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. It has been a little dry so far this year in the region. Speculators anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants have not been willing to sell at current prices. Vietnamese cash prices are weaker this week with good supplies noted in the domestic market. Current rains in the country are favorable for the crops.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.015 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.94 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 124.00 and 127.00 July. Support is at 119.00, 117.00, and 115.00 July, and resistance is at 124.00, 126.00 and 128.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1720, and 1700 July, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1800 July.

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and mostly higher in London. Prices were supported by the dry weather in Brazil and also the truckers strike there that is now over 10 days old. Shipments to mills and ports have stopped due to the action. News that India is looking to dump Sugar on the world market due to overproduction there also did little to move the market. It could be that most of the bad news is already part of the price. Most traders remain focused on the big world production, and most who wanted to sell the market have done so. It is dry in parts of Brazil, including some Sugarcane production areas, and there is some talk of losses to the crop in the near future unless rains return soon. There are no real rains in the forecast for now. It has also been very cold and some cane might have been damaged. However, the initial harvest has been big and processing has been more active than last year. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government is subsidizing industry and producers to help maintain an active market flow and to prevent the buildup of Sugar in storage. India could raise the internal price or try to stockpile supplies in meetings that are now scheduled for this week. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Middle East and North African buyers are reported to be buying normal or less than normal amounts of Sugar in the world market right now.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1270 and 1370 July. Support is at 1230, 1200, and 1170 July, and resistance is at 1260, 1280, and 1310 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 368.00 August. Support is at 345.00, 340.00, and 331.00 August, and resistance is at 354.00, 356.00, and 361.00 August.

General Comments Futures were higher in both markets in consolidation trading. Chart trends are down. It is possible that Cocoa has now made a significant top in both markets. Funds have turned sellers and appear ready to continue to liquidate long positions due in part to the trend change. Fears that developed about the EU economy over the weekend spilled into Cocoa as Europe is the largest per capita consumer of chocolate in the world. Italy is having problems again and there are fears that the problems there could spread to other EU states. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. The mid crop harvest is active in West Africa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.162 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2480, 2460, and 2420 July, with resistance at 2600, 2640, and 2690 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1760 and 1670 July. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1750 July, with resistance at 1870, 1900, and 1930 July.

Nguồn: 123chienluoc.com

Bảng giá
Giá cà phê tham khảo
Giá trị
Thay đổi
Tên Cà phê nhân xô
Giá trị 33700-33900
Thay đổi 200-200
Tên Trừ lùi
Giá trị 0-0
Thay đổi 0-0
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